time：2025-09-01 source：高工鋰電
When the futures price of lithium carbonate hit a new high of 90000 yuan/ton due to the news of production suspension, the market's expectations for the price of lithium carbonate need to be revised again.
Recently, in addition to the news of Jiangte Electric's resumption of production, the production capacity of multiple lithium salt projects has been climbing, stabilizing the supply of lithium carbonate.
Add 260000 tons of lithium carbonate supply
The 40000 ton lithium salt steam transportation project of China Minmetals has officially started construction, and the 115000 ton/year lithium salt production capacity of China Salt Lake will be fully released before October.
DeA Lithium, a subsidiary of Chuanneng Power, has successfully debugged and produced qualified battery grade lithium salts in July. The project relies on the Lijiagou spodumene mine, with a production capacity of 15000 tons/year of lithium carbonate and 15000 tons/year of lithium hydroxide, and is expected to fully meet production standards in August.
Ganfeng Lithium's lithium extraction project from spodumene in Xuanhan County, Sichuan Province is expected to reach a production capacity of 45000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide this year.
In addition, according to the plan, Zijin Lithium Yuan will put into operation a 25000 ton battery grade lithium carbonate project using crude lithium carbonate as raw material in December; The 30000 ton lithium hydroxide new production line of Yahua Group will also be built within the year, which provides resource guarantee through "self controlled lithium ore+purchased lithium ore".
The above five projects will add 170000 tons of lithium salt production capacity for the whole year.
The market expects that by 2025, China will add 260000 tons of lithium carbonate supply, with a total output of 800000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global production.
Potential release of lithium extraction from salt lakes
It is worth noting that under the consensus of cost reduction in the industry, the proportion of low-cost lithium salt production capacity is increasing.
From the current perspective, extracting lithium from salt lakes is an important source of new lithium salt production capacity. Due to the low operating costs of lithium extraction units in salt lakes, which are located on the left side of the global lithium cost curve, they are becoming a rigid supply in the market.
The Cha'erhan Salt Lake, the largest soluble potassium magnesium salt deposit in China and the second largest in the world, has long been limited by technological bottlenecks with a resource utilization rate of less than 30%. With the implementation of the supporting steam engineering for China Minmetals' 40000 ton lithium salt project, this will form a "golden combination" with the completed adsorption lithium extraction device, increasing lithium yield by 25% and further reducing production costs by 12000 yuan per ton.
After all the 40000 ton lithium salt projects mentioned above are completed, China Minmetals' share in the domestic salt lake lithium extraction market will also jump from 8% to over 15%.
In terms of overseas supply, in recent years, Ganfeng Lithium has vigorously laid out low-cost lithium mines. The 20000 ton lithium chloride production capacity of Mariana Salt Lake was officially put into operation at the beginning of this year, and the supply of lithium chloride products will gradually stabilize in the second half of the year. Zijin Mining's 3Q Salt Lake Phase I with a production capacity of 20000 tons is scheduled to be put into operation in Q3 of the 25th.
At present, China is accelerating the extraction of lithium resources from domestic salt lakes. Last year, China Salt Lake was born, becoming the first large state-owned enterprise in China named after "salt lake", which further confirms the position of salt lakes as an important strategic resource of the country.
More importantly, through the integration of resources by central enterprises and unified planning and development, the difficulty of development can be effectively reduced. Although salt lake lithium extraction has clear cost advantages, its uncertainty lies in the large amount of investment and construction in the early stages of the project.
Taking Xizang Mining as an example, its Zabuye Phase II project has not made substantial progress in reaching its production capacity more than a year after its trial production. This year, Xizang Mining lowered its production target to 5000 tons of lithium concentrate and 7000 tons of lithium carbonate products.
The project contractor Donghua Technology stated that the main reason why the second phase of Zabuye has not been officially put into operation is that the supporting energy facilities have not been fully completed.
At present, the cost of lithium extraction from salt lakes is between 30000 and 40000 yuan per ton, but on the supply side, the cost of lithium extraction from ore, which is between 60000 and 80000 yuan per ton, still dominates.
In February of this year, the heavy medium feeding test of the Dahongliutan lithium mine project in Xinjiang was successful, and the first batch of spodumene concentrate products met the standards after testing. It is estimated that the total resource quantity is about 25 million tons of LCE. The first mining area has discovered 50 million tons of spodumene ore and 700000 tons of lithium oxide. After all exploration is completed, it is expected that the ore volume will reach 100 million tons and the lithium oxide volume will be 1.5 million tons.
The first phase of Zhicun Lithium Industry's 60000 ton battery grade lithium carbonate project plans to exceed a total production capacity of 500000 tons by 2025. The "one-step lithium extraction" technology can reduce the cost per ton by 8000-10000 yuan and significantly improve the gross profit margin.
Recently, the price of spodumene has shown a trend of first suppressing and then rising, with intensified fluctuations.
In mid August, the price of spodumene experienced an explosive rebound, with the average market price soaring from 5550 yuan/ton to 7500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.7%, the largest weekly increase of the year. The international market has risen synchronously, with the spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) rising from $600/ton in early July to nearly $800/ton in August.
From the current spot market, the price of lithium carbonate is hovering around 80000 yuan/ton, and there is still some profit margin for extracting lithium from pyroxene. In contrast, the production capacity of mica lithium extraction has further shrunk under the dual pressures of cost pressure and policy adjustments.
Under the new Mineral Resources Law, the cost of resource tax for low-grade mines has sharply increased by 3-5 times. About 60% of lithium mica mines in Yichun area have a lithium oxide grade of less than 0.4%, with a total cost exceeding 120000 yuan/ton, and are trapped in the dilemma of mining at a loss.
Industry insiders predict that by 2025, the production capacity of lithium mica in Jiangxi may shrink by more than 50%, and the output will decrease to 79000 tons of LCE, forming a temporary supply vacuum.
The production capacity of spodumene lithium extraction to supplement this position is expected to exceed 550000 tons of LCE, accounting for more than 50% of the total national production capacity and becoming an absolute mainstay. At the same time, the lithium extraction capacity of salt lakes is accelerating, and the annual production capacity of Qinghai Salt Lake is expected to increase to 200000-250000 tons of LCE, with an increase of 45000 to 50000 tons.
Excess amplitude may narrow
Some believe that 2025 will be the last year for the concentrated release of new lithium salt production capacity.
In the future, the "catch-up" between the release of upstream production capacity and the expansion of terminal demand will determine the turning point of lithium carbonate prices.
From a recent perspective, downstream destocking is gradually transmitting to lithium carbonate.
On August 21st, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in China was at a high level of 140000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous week.
At the same time, the inventory cycle of positive electrode materials in the middle reaches is about one week; The sales ratio of downstream power battery inventory is also at the recent median, and the inventory of energy storage batteries is already at a low level in recent years.
From the perspective of operating rate, in recent times, except for the increase in operating rate of lithium carbonate production from spodumene, the operating rate of lithium carbonate per week has dropped to around 50%. The domestic battery material production rate slightly increased in July.
Overall, the situation of excess supply of lithium carbonate is difficult to reverse in the short term, but its magnitude may narrow in 2025.
GGII predicts that lithium salt prices are expected to enter a new upward cycle in the second half of 2026.
The policy measures have cooled down the severe expansion of production capacity in the past, while also supporting the expected price of lithium carbonate. High cost production capacity is being cleared while low-cost production capacity is entering, and the price of lithium carbonate is still seeking a new balance at both ends of the seesaw.
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