time：2025-08-29 source：高工鋰電
The two key tracks of iron lithium and diaphragm have held closed door meetings one after another, and the lithium battery industry has released a clear anti internal competition signal.
On Friday, August 22nd, 10 lithium iron phosphate enterprises held an industry closed door meeting in Shenzhen to jointly discuss solutions to address overcapacity, especially outdated production capacity of lithium iron phosphate; The next day (August 23), the wet process diaphragm enterprise held a closed door meeting for reverse internal rolling in Suzhou. Prior to this, the dry process diaphragm had already held such a closed door meeting on August 8.
The attending lineup includes industry leaders and core players. The participating companies in the closed door meeting of Iron Lithium include Hunan Yuneng, Wanrun New Energy, Anda Technology, Youshan Technology, Fengyuan Lithium Energy, Changzhou Lithium Source, Tianyuan Lithium Battery, Defang Nano, and Dangsheng Technology's subsidiary Dangsheng Shudao (Panzhihua); The participating companies in the diaphragm closed door meeting include Xingyuan Materials, Enjie Co., Ltd., Huiqiang New Materials, Bosheng New Materials, Cangzhou Mingzhu, Kanghui New Materials, etc.
The closed door meeting will focus on the theme of anti internal competition and advocate for industry self-discipline. At the diaphragm door closing meeting, it was agreed that the sales price should be above the cost line, and there would be no additional capacity added domestically beyond the planned capacity.
Not only the main materials of lithium batteries themselves have made self-discipline statements and empty talk about anti involution, but anti involution has resonated with the pace of industry clearance from multiple dimensions such as self-discipline, policy, and compliance.
The lithium battery industry has been in a bottom cycle for a long time. In 2025, there are signs of recovery in terms of shipment growth rate, capacity utilization rate, and prices, and the clearance pace is coming to an end.
At this stage, self-discipline consensus creates market conditions for the orderly exit of low-end production capacity by stabilizing industry pricing and controlling new production capacity, synchronizing market sentiment with corporate behavior, and becoming the primary link in the anti internal competition system.
However, relying solely on corporate self-discipline is still difficult to address supply side structural issues, especially in the lithium battery industry, which previously focused on scale and market share as its competitive focus.
The successive introduction of policies and compliance measures will bring anti internal competition to the real supply side, such as raising the threshold for expansion, strengthening qualification review, clarifying pricing and cost red lines, directly affecting inefficient or illegal production capacity, further promoting anti internal competition, and accelerating the survival of the fittest in the industry.
How does the wind of anti involution blow?
Resonance between self-discipline, policies, compliance, and clearing fundamentals
The practice of lithium carbonate in the past two months has provided a clear path and mirror for the entire lithium battery industry chain. The development path along the timeline can be summarized as follows:
At the end of May, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an industry initiative, requiring companies to follow the principle of fair competition and not dump below cost price, providing preliminary direction for industry self-discipline;
On July 1st, the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission explicitly proposed to "govern low price disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations", promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and provide regulatory direction for the market;
On July 3rd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened a symposium with 14 leading enterprises and industry associations, including CATL and BYD, and promoted the signing of the "Industry Self discipline Convention", requiring enterprises to gradually reduce production and control output from July onwards, in order to repair the market supply and demand relationship and alleviate overcapacity;
In mid July, local regulators further followed up and the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau required 8 mining enterprises to complete verification reports on changes in mineral types and reserves, and clean up illegal mining rights;
In August, some illegal mines were ordered to shut down, and Ningde Times Jiangxi Lithium Mine implemented the shutdown. The supply side fundamentals fluctuated, and the central price of lithium carbonate rebounded temporarily.
Lithium carbonate exhibits a clear rhythm in anti involution. Firstly, in response to market sentiment, the industry initiates self-discipline initiatives, followed by policy clarification of regulatory red lines, and then local law enforcement is implemented, ultimately affecting the supply side and accelerating the exit of inefficient production capacity.
This process is not simply about boosting the market. Whether it is industry self-discipline, policies, or compliance, they all coincide with the fundamental aspects of the industry entering the final stage of clearing.
GGII pointed out that the lithium battery industry is nearing the end of its clearance period, and both the supply and demand structure and price signals indicate a recovery in the industry.
In the first half of 2025, the overall year-on-year growth rate of the lithium battery industry chain will exceed 40%: 776GWh of battery end shipments, a year-on-year increase of 68%, including 477GWh of power batteries, accounting for 61.4%, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and 265GWh of energy storage batteries, a year-on-year increase of 128%.
2.1 million tons of positive electrode materials on the material side, a year-on-year increase of 53%, including 1.61 million tons of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 77%, a year-on-year increase of 68%; 1.29 million tons of negative electrode, an increase of 37%; 870000 tons of electrolyte, increased by 45%, and 13.6 billion square meters of diaphragm, increased by 49%.
The capacity utilization rate has also rebounded to a healthy range, with the current TOP10 capacity utilization rates for lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate materials, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and separators being 65%, 80%, 72%, 65%, and 63%, respectively.
In terms of price, except for the diaphragm inner roll price which is still declining, the low points of other main materials have passed.
In this context of supply and demand and operation, the logic of regulatory and compliance tools is not to use administrative means to sustain prices for a long time, but to "raise thresholds, tighten standards, and promote clearance". By tightening mining rights/capacity access, we can squeeze out inefficient, non compliant, or production capacity that deviates significantly from the industry's reasonable range, accelerate the exit of remaining low-end production capacity, and shorten the duration of disorderly competition.
Anti involution drives market competition into a new stage
Lithium battery innovation vitality is expected to be released
Some viewpoints point out that the successful anti internal competition has driven a comprehensive price rebound in the lithium battery industry. If the supply chain profit margin returns to a sustainable level, the average selling price of batteries may increase by a medium to high double-digit percentage.
At the same time as the acceleration of clearance and price recovery, there are also concerns in the industry. Against the backdrop of unclear signals of incremental demand from end-users, if upstream prices rebound significantly, terminal cost pressure may further increase, or pose a challenge to the pace of clearance.
From the perspective of industrial operation logic, price repair does not mean simple cost transfer, but rather the greater significance lies in promoting the transformation of industry competition mode. With the clearance of inefficient production capacity and the concentration of demand towards the top, the focus of competition may gradually shift from price to efficiency and technology, and the innovation vitality of the industrial chain is expected to be released.
The participation of anti involution is an inevitable stage in the process of industry clearance.
Low end production capacity is often at a disadvantage in terms of technical performance and production costs, and is usually gradually phased out during the industry upgrade cycle. But in the price wars of the past two years, this type of production capacity has slowed down the clearance pace by reducing prices and exchanging quantities; If downstream price pressures are added, high-end production capacity will be forced to follow suit and reduce prices to maintain its share, resulting in a long-term loss of profit margins.
Whether it is industry self-discipline or strong measures such as policies and compliance, if anti internal competition can be implemented, inefficient production capacity may accelerate clearance, and demand may be more concentrated in enterprises with cost and technological advantages.
In the recent closed door meeting, different players have different tolerance and strategic choices for market fluctuations, and there are significant differences in gross profit margins among enterprises, with top companies exceeding 20%.
Some analysts believe that if the anti involution policy is implemented, there is a 5% to 8% upward potential for the price of wet process membranes, and there is a possibility of an increase in the price of dry process membranes. However, due to the overall decline in utilization rate, enterprises need to adjust their production capacity synchronously; In a longer period of time, the technical routes for the skeleton separator and oxide system supporting semi-solid batteries have gradually entered the mass production verification stage.
In terms of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, GGII pointed out that the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate is still not high, but structural tension has emerged.
Part of the top enterprises have a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 90%, and further expansion or outsourcing has become a demand; However, many small and medium-sized enterprises have been unable to enter the supply chain of first and second tier customers due to product quality, resulting in a long-term low capacity utilization rate. With the accelerated increase in production of third-generation and fourth generation products, as well as the discount adaptation of old production capacity brought about by process upgrades, some outdated production capacity is in a passive elimination process.
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