time：2025-09-04 source：高工鋰電
Jiangsu Guotai has announced that its four-year lithium battery electrolyte project has come to an end - the lithium-ion battery electrolyte project with an investment of 1.538 billion yuan and an annual output of 400000 tons has officially come to a halt.
This seemingly routine announcement of corporate strategic adjustment hides the turning point of the project from "high expectations" to "difficult implementation", reflecting the survival dilemma and transformation pursuit of the current lithium battery electrolyte industry.
Looking back to 2021, it was the "golden growth period" of the lithium battery industry, as the surge in sales of new energy vehicles drove a surge in demand for electrolytes.
Jiangsu Guotai officially announced the project, which was undertaken by its subsidiary Ningde Guotai Huarong New Materials Co., Ltd. At that time, the expectations for this project were high: the feasibility study report showed that after the project was completed, the annual sales revenue was expected to reach 15.08 billion yuan, the net profit was about 790 million yuan, and the investment payback period was only 5.17 years, with impressive economic benefits.
In terms of the pace of capacity release, the plan is also very clear - the construction period is 24 months, with a capacity utilization rate of 45% in the first year, 75% in the second year, 90% in the third year, and full production operation starting from the fourth year, each step reflecting confidence in the market.
However, the gap between reality and planning is gradually widening. Until the latest termination announcement was issued, this project, which had been highly anticipated, has not officially started construction and is only in the stage of land coordination.
The crux of the problem lies in the "hardware": In March 2023, Ningde Huarong won a construction land of about 120000 square meters in the Long'an area of Dianxia, Fuding City. However, this key land was not delivered as agreed in the "State owned Construction Land Use Right Transfer Contract", and the project lacks a foundation for promotion. Currently, the enterprise is still negotiating with the government on the subsequent disposal of the land.
But the land issue is just the trigger, what really made Jiangsu Guotai determined to cut losses was the "earth shattering" industry environment.
In recent years, the lithium battery electrolyte field has been caught in a "production expansion competition", with the speed of capacity expansion far exceeding the demand growth of downstream new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, and periodic overcapacity has become the norm.
The fierce competition directly triggers a price "plunge": compared to the high point in 2021, by the end of 2024, the prices of ternary and lithium iron electrolytes have decreased by more than 80%, and the prices of core raw materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC (ethylene carbonate) are only 10% of what they were before.
The price decline combined with cost fluctuations has greatly compressed the industry's profit margin. After recalculating, Jiangsu Guotai found that not only is the project's production capacity difficult to digest, but the investment return rate is also far lower than expected. The originally planned net profit of 790 million yuan has almost become an "impossible goal".
In order to optimize resource allocation, improve capital efficiency, and safeguard shareholder interests, terminating the project has become a rational choice.
Jiangsu Guotai's "taking a step back" is not an isolated case. Since the beginning of this year, Chuanheng Corporation has terminated the 10000 ton lithium hexafluorophosphate project and the 800 million time and space company has terminated the 3000 ton lithium hexafluorophosphate project.
Behind these decisions is the increasingly evident "Matthew effect" in the electrolyte industry: the survival space of small and medium-sized manufacturers continues to be squeezed, and the concentration of top enterprises continues to increase.
GGII data shows that in the first half of 2025, the electrolyte industry's CR5 (market share of the top 5 companies) has exceeded 70%, with one leading company having a market share of over 36%.
Xu Jinfu, Chairman of Tianci Materials, once admitted at the 2024 High Tech Annual Conference that "the competition in the entire electrolyte field has ended." Taking the lithium hexafluorophosphate market as an example, the top three global suppliers have already accounted for over 80% of the market share, and companies at the waist and below continue to shut down. The industry's "reshuffle" is coming to an end.
Nevertheless, the aftermath of the price war has not completely faded away. Affected by the decline in lithium salt prices, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by more than 10% compared to the first quarter, and fell to about 50000 yuan/ton by the end of June; The price of iron lithium electrolyte has also experienced a 3% -6% month on month decline, with only the price of ternary electrolyte relatively stable.
Although GGII predicts a slight rebound of less than 5% in the prices of solvents, lithium salts, and additives used in electrolytes by 2025, the industry as a whole is still unlikely to see significant improvement, and "low profit operation" may become the norm.
In the new industry landscape, leading companies are also seeking new growth points. In addition to expanding into new markets overseas, solid-state batteries, which are considered the ultimate next-generation batteries, have become a high ground for companies to seize.
Among them, sulfide solid electrolytes have become a key track: Tianci Materials uses liquid-phase method to prepare lithium sulfide, which is currently in the laboratory kilogram level sample stage and plans to advance to the hundred kilogram level by the end of 2025. Its samples have made breakthroughs in air stability, and in the future, it can reduce costs by synthesizing solid electrolytes in one step through self-produced lithium sulfide;
Huasheng Lithium Battery relies on technological accumulation to jointly develop a Li ? PS ? Cl sulfide solid electrolyte with an ionic conductivity of 5.57 mS/cm through liquid-phase method with customers;
Xinzhoubang has established a joint venture company with Xingyuan Materials, Xinyuanbang, which has completed the production of over 100 kilograms of sulfide electrolytes. It also plans to build a 10 ton/year production line by the end of 2025 to accelerate large-scale implementation.
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